A new survey conducted by political polling firm A2 Insights indicates that Republican gubernatorial candidate Winsome Earle-Sears is mounting a remarkable comeback in Virginia, closing the gap on Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger just weeks ahead of the Nov. 4 election.

The poll, conducted between September 26 and 28 with a sample of 771 likely voters, shows Spanberger holding a modest lead at 47.7 percent, while Earle-Sears — currently Virginia’s lieutenant governor — has climbed to 44.6 percent. Another 6.4 percent of respondents remain undecided, leaving a significant portion of the electorate still up for grabs.

This represents a dramatic shift from a Wason Center for Civic Leadership survey conducted just over two weeks ago. That nonpartisan poll had Spanberger with a commanding 12-point advantage over Earle-Sears, leading 52 percent to 40 percent, with 8 percent of voters undecided.

Political analysts view the new numbers as a major surge for the Republican candidate, suggesting that the race may be tightening in a way reminiscent of other off-year elections. A similar trend is evident in New Jersey, where an Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill poll shows the gubernatorial race effectively deadlocked. Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill, a congresswoman and former federal prosecutor, holds 43 percent, tied with Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a businessman and former state assemblyman.

Democrats have been banking on retaining New Jersey for a third consecutive election while flipping Virginia from Republican control. However, the latest polling data suggest that both Republican candidates have plausible paths to victory with less than a month remaining before voters head to the polls.

President Donald Trump quickly seized on the New Jersey poll results, posting on Truth Social that Ciattarelli “essentially beat close to incompetent Mike Sherrill” and praised the Republican as “tough on crime and cutting taxes, two things that people really demand today.” Trump further criticized Sherrill’s positions on social issues, claiming she supports policies that “almost DESTROYED America,” while endorsing Ciattarelli as “a GREAT Governor” for the Garden State.

The outcomes in Virginia and New Jersey are shaping up to be critical early indicators of partisan strength heading into the 2026 midterm cycle, as both states attract national attention and high-profile involvement from party leaders.