A new Emerson College poll shows Vice President J.D. Vance holding a slim lead over California Governor Gavin Newsom in a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup. The survey found 46% support for Vance versus 45% for Newsom, with 10% of respondents undecided. Neither candidate has formally declared a presidential run yet, but both are seen as leading figures in their parties. This result is consistent with previous Emerson polls, which also showed a narrow gap between the two politicians.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that the electorate remains polarized, with little change in voter preferences despite various political developments. Key issues like the economy and concerns about democracy could influence voter attitudes, particularly among women and younger voters. Governor Newsom has increased his national profile this year, often using social media in a direct, combative style reminiscent of former President Trump. Vance has criticized this approach, calling Newsom’s tactics “inauthentic” and suggesting they do not resonate with average voters.

Both politicians have been involved in contentious redistricting efforts, which could shape congressional power in the coming years. Newsom has pushed for a new California district map aimed at flipping Republican seats, while Vance has advocated for redistricting in Indiana to benefit Republicans, though that effort faces uncertainty. The two also clashed publicly over the deployment of the National Guard to Los Angeles during immigration protests. The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters with a 3-point margin of error, reflecting the close nature of early voter sentiment ahead of the 2028 race.